Public research library

Facts on Prop 40.

If you have less than $1 billion in wealth, this tax does NOT apply to you.

Explore the research on California’s proposed billionaire tax. Read the reports, find answers to your questions, and follow the original sources.

14Full reports to read online

128Original pages of analysis

10Named research authors

Find your starting point

What would you
like to understand?

Open a question for a short guide, then go straight to the report passage.

Will Prop 40 tax everyone in California, not just billionaires?

No. If you have less than $1 billion in wealth, the tax does NOT apply to you.

There is no way for the legislature to change Prop 40 to make it apply to anyone else who isn’t a billionaire.

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How does the research connect the tax to healthcare?

The authors describe new money for healthcare, schools, and food assistance. They explain how federal funding changes could affect insurance coverage, hospitals, and other providers.

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How much money could it raise?

The expert report estimates about $100 billion over 2027–2031, using its stated wealth data and allowance for avoidance. The report also explains how asset values could change the result.

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What if billionaires move or leave California?

The response report separates announced moves from changes in tax residence. It challenges the competing model’s assumptions about future income-tax losses and acknowledges limits in public residency data.

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How would the tax treat a founder’s business?

The reports distinguish a company from an owner’s stake. The valuation report explains public-company shares, private-business formulas, and appraisals. The expert report separately discusses payment options.

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What are the legal arguments?

The legal report sets out the drafters’ reasoning under state and federal law. Thirteen sections address objections and link to cited court decisions. It is legal analysis, not a court decision about Prop 40.

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The research library

Read the original work.

Fourteen reports, with full text, linked sources, and source-connected metadata.

14 of 14 reports
SEIU-UHW issue brief · 13 pages

Where Will the Patients Go?

SEIU-UHW Research Department

Hospital closuresEmergency careMaternity careMedi-Cal

Spillover Effects of HR1 Medicaid Cuts and Hospital Closures

Research report · 4 pages

H.R. 1 Fallout

Health careFood assistanceEnergy costsMental health

How the federal budget law cuts health care and food assistance, causing ripple effects that devastate public safety, energy costs, mental health, housing, and consumer affordability, all to fund a historic immigration enforcement surge — and what it means for California

Issue brief · 4 pages

Anthropic/OpenAI IPO

AnthropicOpenAIIPOsTech wealth

Issue Brief: Anthropic and OpenAI Initial Public Offerings are projected to generate enormous wealth for tech sector billionaires in California

The reports present the named authors’ research and arguments. The original text retains each edition’s figures, qualifications, and source notes. The reading guides are separate summaries, not changes to the reports.

Follow the evidence

Research behind
the reports.

Explore the data, legal scholarship, and methods cited in the library.

Working paper · 2026

California Billionaires: Wealth, Taxes, and Wealth Tax Revenue Estimates

Jasper Boll, Emmanuel Saez, and Gabriel Zucman

Working-paper data and methods for estimating California billionaire wealth and tax revenue.

NBER Working Paper 34170 · 2025

How Much Tax Do US Billionaires Pay? Evidence from Administrative Data

Akcan Balkir, Emmanuel Saez, Danny Yagan, and Gabriel Zucman

The administrative-data research cited in the reports’ discussions of U.S. billionaire taxation.

The people behind the work

Meet the authors.

Connect the reports to the people who wrote them and their fields of research.

Primary documents

The proposal and
the state’s analysis.

Read the legal text and the official fiscal assessment alongside the research.

Proposed legal text · 2025 filing

2026 Billionaire Tax Act — amended initiative 25-0024A1

California Attorney General — filed initiative text

The proposed constitutional and statutory language, including eligibility, valuation, spending, and payment rules.